Weekly expected deaths model validation
Jonas Schöley
2020-10-20
Results across countries
| Cumulative deaths week 10 to 27 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean absolute percentage error | ||||||||||||||
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | GBR_SCO | NOR | SWE | ||||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 3-year avg. weekly deaths | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 3-year avg. weekly mortality | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| 5-year avg. weekly deaths | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 6.0 |
| CODA-ALR centered deaths | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| CODA-ALR centered mortality | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| CODA-ILR centered deaths | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| CODA-ILR centered mortality | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Lowest error bold, highest error italic. | ||||||||||||||
| Weekly deaths week 10 to 27 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean absolute percentage error | ||||||||||||||
| DNK | ESP | FIN | FRATNP | GBR_SCO | NOR | SWE | ||||||||
| F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | F | M | |
| 3-year avg. weekly deaths | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| 3-year avg. weekly mortality | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 6.6 |
| 5-year avg. weekly deaths | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| 5-year avg. weekly mortality | 5.7 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 |
| CODA-ALR centered deaths | 5.3 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| CODA-ALR centered mortality | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| CODA-ILR centered deaths | 5.3 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| CODA-ILR centered mortality | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Lowest error bold, highest error italic. | ||||||||||||||
Results by country
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRATNP
GBR_SCO
NOR
SWE
